AKP’s vote down to 29 percent, Erdoğan losing presidency: poll

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Support for Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has declined to 29.1 percent, and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would lose the presidency in a possible election, according to a survey conducted by the Eurasia Public Research Center (AKAM) on Aug. 21, Turkish media reported.

The poll results, announced on Tuesday by AKAM President Kemal Özkiraz from his YouTube channel, also showed that 58.7 percent of respondents favored an early election, compared to 30.8 percent who didn’t. Of respondents, 10.5 percent were undecided.

When respondents were asked the open-ended question “Which party will you vote for?” 29.1 percent said they would vote for the AKP, followed by the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) (27.2 percent), the İYİ (Good) Party (13.8 percent), the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) (9.8 percent), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) (7.3 percent), the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) (4.7 percent), the Future Party (GP) (2.2 percent), the Felicity Party (SP) (1.6 percent), the Democrat Party (DP) (1.1 percent), the Turkish Workers’ Party (TİP) (1 percent) and the Homeland Party (MP) (0.9 percent), with undecided votes distributed among the parties.

When the names of the parties and their leaders were specified as options to select, there were some changes to the votes, with 28.3 percent saying they would vote for the AKP, followed by the CHP (26.6 percent), İYİ (14.1 percent), the HDP (9.6 percent), the MHP (7.1 percent), DEVA (5.8 percent), the GP (2.7 percent), the SP (1.3 percent), the DP (1.1 percent), TİP (1 percent) and the MP (1.3 percent), with the undecided votes distributed among the parties.

The results of the AKAM survey do not bode well for President Erdoğan as 54.9 percent of respondents said they would not want Erdoğan to be re-elected president, compared to 34.2 percent who would, with 10.9 percent undecided.

According to the poll results, AKP leader Erdoğan would be defeated by each of his potential rivals — İYİ leader Meral Akşener, CHP Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş — in a possible presidential election in which one of them is running against the incumbent president.

According to the survey, in the event Erdoğan and İYİ leader Akşener qualify for the second round of a presidential election, Akşener would receive 54 percent of the vote and Erdoğan would get 46 percent.

When Erdoğan is pitted against CHP leader Kılıçdaroğlu, Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu would receive 45.8 percent and 54.2 percent, respectively.

In a scenario in which İstanbul Mayor İmamoğlu runs for president against Erdoğan, İmamoğlu would defeat Erdoğan by an 19-point margin, with Erdoğan and İmamoğlu garnering 40.5 percent and 50.5 percent of the vote, respectively.

Ankara Mayor Yavaş, too, defeats Erdoğan hands down as 41.9 percent of respondents said they would vote for Erdoğan, while 58.1 percent opted for Yavaş, resulting in a 16.2 point difference in favor of Yavaş.

According to the survey results, the majority of respondents found the government/president to be unsuccessful regarding recent wildfires (62.3 percent unsuccessful vs. 24.9 percent successful), refugees (75.9 percent unsuccessful vs. 17.2 percent successful) and management of the economy (65.1 percent unsuccessful vs. 27.9 percent successful).

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