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Slim majority of respondents believe Erdoğan would not win re-election: survey

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A narrow majority of respondents of a public survey conducted by the Ankara-based Metropoll company believe that incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would not win re-election if a presidential vote had been held in May.

“Would Erdoğan win re-election if the presidential election was held this Sunday?” was the question asked to respondents in Metropoll’s “Turkey’s Pulse” survey conducted in May.

A slight majority of respondents, 49 percent, said they believed Erdoğan would not win re-election, while 46 percent said they thought he would. Most undecided voters also felt Erdoğan would not win re-election.


Erdoğan was first elected president for a five-year renewable term in 2014 by a direct vote under the parliamentary system. Turkey switched to presidential system of governance with a referendum in 2017 and held snap presidential and parliamentary polls in 2018, when Erdoğan was elected president again.

Metropoll has been asking people regularly since August 2020 about their views concerning Erdoğan’s chances of winning the next presidential election.

Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have been losing public support in public surveys at a time when a staggeringly high cost of living has become the new normal in Turkey, where recent increases in food and utility prices are pushing up inflation, further crippling the purchasing power of citizens.

In May Turkey’s inflation climbed to its highest level since 1998, hitting an annual 73.5 percent.

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