Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Public Alliance, which includes his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its ally, the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), would have received a nationwide vote of 33.7 percent if a general election were to be held this weekend, according to a survey conducted by Aksoy Research.
The survey, titled “Turkey Monitor,” shows votes for the AKP in an August 2021 general election would have been 26.7 percent, while the MHP would have received only 7 percent, below Turkey’s election threshold.
Turkey has a 10 percent election threshold, which means if a party fails to get 10 percent of the national vote in the general election, they lose the opportunity to be represented in parliament.
While the AKP-MHP vote would have stood at 33.7 percent in total in an August election, the parties comprising the rival Nation Alliance — the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), the nationalist İYİ (Good) Party and the Islamist Felicity Party (SP) — would have received 36.8 percent in total, with the CHP garnering 24.5 percent of the vote and İYİ garnering 11.6 percent.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) stood at 8.9 percent, while former AKP co-founder Ali Babacan’s DEVA has seen its votes reach 2.1 percent and the Future Party (GP) –- another political movement that broke away from the AKP and was founded by former prime minister Ahmet Davutoğlu -– received 1.2 percent of the vote.
The ruling AKP’s vote increases to 30.6 percent and support for the CHP and İYİ reaches 28.7 and 13.3 percent, respectively, when undecided voters, who represented 13.8 percent in the survey, are distributed among the parties, according to the poll.
In the last general election, held in June 2018, the AKP garnered a nationwide vote of 42.6 percent. However, public surveys have increasingly been showing the party’s public support to be slipping.