According to a recent survey conducted by the KONDA polling company, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will win with 51.9 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential election on June 24.
Compared to a previous KONDA poll in May, Erdoğan lost 1.4 percent of his support, down from 53.3 percent, while his rival Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate Muharrem İnce jumped from 23.4 to 28 percent support.
Other candidates, including the İYİ (Good) Party’s Meral Akşener, Peoples’ Democratic Party’s (HDP) Selahattin Demirtaş and the Felicity Party’s (SP) Temel Karamollaoğlu garnered 10.2, 9 and 0.7 percent of the vote, respectively.
The KONDA survey also suggested that three factors would affect the results in Sunday’s vote: how and at what speed trends of change observed in May poll proceed; whether the level of participation in the election slips below 85 percent; and how expatriate votes are distributed among political parties.
For the parliamentary elections the KONDA survey foresaw that seven political parties would be represented in parliament after Sunday’s vote.
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will garner 45.5 percent of the vote, while the CHP will get 26.1 percent, the HDP, 11.6 percent, the İYİ Party, 8.5 percent and the MHP will attract 7.3 percent. The SP, along with the İYİ Party, MHP and Grand Unity Party (BBP) will be represented in parliament due to their alliances with the CHP and AKP, even though they will not manage to surpass the 10 percent election threshold.
KONDA’s latest survey was conducted on June 9 and 10, on 2,721 people and in 31 provinces of Turkey.