Turkey’s trade with Iran is slowing amid nationwide protests in the Islamic Republic, while exporters say their bigger concern is President Donald Trump’s recent threat to impose a 25 percent additional US tariff on countries that do business with Tehran.
Trump said on Monday that the measure would take effect immediately but did not spell out what doing business with Iran would include or whether energy purchases and indirect transactions through third countries would be covered.
Daily truck traffic at the Gürbulak border gate on the Turkey-Iran border fell by as much as 40 percent after the protests began, dropping from a typical 350 to 400 vehicles a day to around 200, exporters and logistics representatives told Turkish business daily Ekonomim.
“Trade with Iran has become extremely difficult due to intensifying US pressure and the ongoing protests,” Başaran Bayrak, a board member of the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM), told Ekonomim, adding that shipments have slowed and cross-border commerce has contracted further.
Bayrak said Iran trade often relies on informal arrangements, with payments frequently made by hand or via couriers but argued that exporters’ main risk lies in the US market.
“If Turkey is included in the scope of this measure, that’s when we’ll face real trouble,” he said, noting Turkey’s annual exports to the United States exceed $13 billion.
Border operations slowed by internet restrictions
Alper Özel, an executive at the International Transporters Association (UND), said border crossings remain open but that Iran’s internet restrictions have slowed operations and made it harder for companies to reach drivers.
“For now, there are no major problems in the Bazargan and Gürbulak areas,” he said.
Customs broker Mesut Temel of Asset Consulting said the announcement has not yet fully affected ground operations but has increased uncertainty among companies.
Sea freight has been less affected than road transport. Salih Zeki Çakır, chair of coastal shipping company Oras Denizcilik, said maritime operations to and through Iran are continuing without disruption.
Economists flag broader exposure
Hakkı Hakan Yılmaz, a director at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), told Deutsche Welle’s Turkish edition that the tariff threat could hit Turkey’s economy again after US sanctions imposed in 2018 helped cut Turkey-Iran trade from above $10 billion to around $5.4 billion.
Turkey’s trade with Iran totaled $5.1 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, with exports at about $2.8 billion and imports at roughly $2.3 billion, according to Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) data.
Yılmaz said Turkey’s exports to the United States could reach about $16.5 billion by the end of 2025, meaning roughly 6 percent of total exports could face higher costs if the tariff is applied.
He said the sectors most exposed include machinery and spare parts, which account for about 25 to 30 percent of Turkey’s exports to Iran, followed by plastics and chemicals at about 20 to 25 percent, adding that small and medium-sized companies in organized industrial zones could be hit the hardest.
On the import side, Yılmaz said more than 60 percent of Turkey’s purchases from Iran consist of natural gas and that Turkey sources about 8 billion cubic meters annually from its neighbor. Any supply disruption could push energy costs higher, he warned.
Tariffs as political pressure
Economist Sinan Alçın said Trump has used tariff threats as a political pressure tool as well as an economic one, and that developments in Iran could determine whether the measure remains in place.
The White House has not published technical details on the scope of the tariff, adding to uncertainty for companies trading with Iran.
China, Iran’s largest trading partner, said it would take “all necessary measures” to protect its “legitimate rights and interests.”
Turkey is among Iran’s top five trading partners along with China, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and India, according to World Bank data.
Protests rooted in economic crisis
The protests erupted on December 28 after a sharp fall in the Iranian rial against the US dollar amid soaring inflation and shortages.
Strikes by merchants in Tehran’s historic Grand Bazaar spread nationwide in the following days and were followed by internet restrictions that have made it difficult to verify casualty figures.
Rights groups have reported a government crackdown that has included mass arrests, internet blackouts and lethal force. Estimates of deaths range from at least hundreds, with far higher figures reported by some groups, though exact numbers remain difficult to confirm amid restricted communications. The unrest marks the most intense wave of protests since the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody.