Özel-led party would rank first if CHP split, survey shows

A possible new party led by ousted main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Özgür Özel would rank first in a hypothetical parliamentary election with 33.8 percent of the vote, ahead of both President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and a CHP led by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, according to a recent opinion poll.

The poll tested a scenario in which Kılıçdaroğlu, who was reinstated as CHP chairman by a court in May, led the party into the next election while Özel formed a separate party.

The survey comes amid an ongoing leadership crisis in Turkey’s main opposition party after a controversial court ruling in May annulled the CHP’s 38th Ordinary Congress, held in November 2023, when Özel defeated Kılıçdaroğlu and became party chairman.

The ruling removed Özel and the party administration from office and reinstated Kılıçdaroğlu as chairman, raising the prospect of a split in the opposition and plunging Turkey’s oldest political party into one of its most serious internal crises in recent years.

MetroPOLL’s “Turkey’s Pulse” survey for June, conducted between June 15 and 25 on 1,165 respondents, asked voters which party they would support in a hypothetical parliamentary election in which Kılıçdaroğlu led the CHP while Özel entered the race with a newly formed party.

After voters who were undecided said they would not vote or gave no answer were excluded and their shares were redistributed among the parties, Özel’s possible new party came first with 33.8 percent, ahead of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which received 27 percent.

The CHP under Kılıçdaroğlu was measured at 5 percent, below the 7 percent electoral threshold required to enter parliament in general elections.

Turkish media have reported behind-the-scenes discussions about a possible new party, with claims that as many as 73 CHP lawmakers could resign to join an Özel-led movement.

Such a move could cost the CHP its status as the main opposition party in parliament.

Figures close to jailed İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu reportedly favor moving quickly, while Özel and his team are said to prefer exhausting all legal options first.

In the section of the survey measuring current party preferences without the hypothetical Özel scenario, the AKP stood at 31.1 percent, while the CHP received 27.5 percent.

The case stems from allegations of irregularities in the 2023 leadership vote, including claims of vote buying and manipulation. The CHP denies wrongdoing and says the lawsuits are part of a broader judicial campaign to weaken the party after its gains in the March 2024 local elections.

The CHP became Turkey’s leading party in those local elections, delivering Erdoğan’s AKP its worst electoral defeat since coming to power. Since then, the party has faced growing legal pressure, with CHP-run municipalities targeted in a series of investigations and detentions.

More than 30 CHP mayors have been arrested, removed from office or replaced by government-appointed trustees since the March 2024 vote, according to a tally by BBC Turkish, while hundreds of municipal officials have been detained or arrested in investigations prosecutors say involve corruption, terrorism links or other criminal allegations.

The crackdown has included İmamoğlu, Erdoğan’s strongest political rival and the CHP’s presidential candidate, who has been jailed since March 2025. His arrest triggered Turkey’s largest anti-government protests in years.

The CHP says the cases and investigations targeting the party are politically motivated and aimed at rolling back its local election gains. Government officials deny targeting the opposition and claim the judiciary acts independently.