Adem Yavuz Arslan*
With the Kurdish insurgency declaring an end to its 41-year-long armed conflict, Turkey faces its greatest test yet: whether President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is willing to lay down his authoritarian apparatus and restore democracy.
The region surrounding Turkey is witnessing pivotal developments. US President Donald Trump chose Saudi Arabia for his first official trip, and there were reports that he might also travel to İstanbul if Ukrainian and Russian leaders were to meet there for ceasefire talks. Meanwhile, negotiations over Gaza’s future continue, and NATO and EU officials are holding back-to-back meetings with Turkish authorities.
Amid this diplomatic whirlwind, an event of historic proportions occurred: The outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged an armed conflict against Turkey for 41 years, causing over 40,000 deaths, announced that it has decided to dissolve itself and lay down its arms.
This development has ramifications beyond Turkey, potentially affecting neighboring Syria, Iraq, Iran and even Europe, where a significant Kurdish diaspora resides.
Founded by Abdullah Öcalan in 1978, the PKK has been designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey and its Western allies. Öcalan has been imprisoned on İmralı Island since 1999. While the group has declared temporary ceasefires in the past, this is the first time it has announced a full dissolution.
A surprise move by a nationalist leader
The process began unexpectedly on October 22, 2024, when Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), called on Öcalan to declare an end to the PKK’s activities. Given Bahçeli’s staunch opposition to both Öcalan and the PKK for decades, the motivation behind his move remains unclear. Nevertheless, the peace initiative advanced rapidly.
Öcalan called for the PKK to convene a congress and disband on February 27. President Erdoğan met with representatives of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) on April 10, and the PKK held two congresses in northern Iraq, where the decision to disband was finalized. Although details remain confidential, Öcalan reportedly addressed the congress from prison.
The PKK’s announcement emphasized the need for Öcalan’s political rights to be restored and for legal safeguards to ensure the peaceful transition. The timeline and procedure for the laying down of arms remain undefined as does the legal status of PKK members currently imprisoned or in camps. The Turkish parliament faces complex legislative challenges to manage this transition.
Cautious optimism
The announcement was largely welcomed in Turkey. All major political parties, with the exception of hardline nationalist groups like the İYİ (Good) Party, voiced support. Despite being gravely ill, MHP leader Bahçeli publicly praised the move. Main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Özgür Özel offered conditional support, stressing the need for legislative action. Erdoğan, as he has throughout the process, maintained a cautious and reserved stance, acknowledging that “a new era has begun.”
Both the EU and US issued statements welcoming the decision. However, skepticism remains. Many believe secret negotiations between the government and the PKK must have occurred, despite Erdoğan and Bahçeli’s claims that no concessions were made.
The real challenge lies ahead. Any lasting solution will require sweeping reforms, including constitutional amendments and revisions to anti-terror and penal codes. Contentious debates over minority language rights, recognition of ethnic identity and greater autonomy for local governments are expected.
Will Erdoğan relinquish his ‘weapon’?
At the heart of the dilemma is Erdoğan himself. Solving the Kurdish question and ending decades of violence requires a return to the rule of law, a dramatic reversal for a leader who has steadily dismantled Turkey’s judicial independence since a major corruption probe in 2013. Erdoğan replaced judicial and security officials with loyalists, tightened control over the media and criminalized dissent.
Opposition leaders like İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtaş remain imprisoned, sidelined by courts widely seen as extensions of the presidency. Local governments won by opposition parties have been seized by government-appointed trustees. Journalists, civil society leaders, businesspeople and even high school students have been jailed under dubious “terrorism” or “coup plotting” charges. Erdoğan openly ignores rulings from Turkey’s Constitutional Court and the European Court of Human Rights.
If Turkey genuinely seeks a democratic resolution to the Kurdish conflict, these authoritarian practices must end. Erdoğan must stop weaponizing the judiciary, manipulating elections, labeling rivals as terrorists and detaining political opponents. A democratic reset would also mean ending government takeovers of private companies, municipalities and media outlets critical of the regime.
Such reforms would pave the way for a political reconciliation and the release of political prisoners. Yet for Erdoğan and his inner circle, this would mean surrendering the power structure they have built over the past decade.
Today, Erdoğan’s grip extends to decisions as minute as the sale of land parcels or the appointment of university researchers. His control over judges and prosecutors, who act according to presidential directives rather than the law, has created a system comparable only to the authoritarian regimes of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad or Iraq’s Saddam Hussein.
For Turkey to move toward democracy, both the PKK and Erdoğan must lay down their respective “weapons.”
*Adem Yavuz Arslan is a journalist with over two decades of experience in political reporting, investigative journalism and international conflict coverage. His work has focused on Turkey’s political landscape, including detailed reporting on the 2016 coup attempt and its aftermath, as well as broader issues related to media freedom and human rights.He has reported from conflict zones such as Bosnia, Kosovo and Iraq, and has conducted in-depth research on high-profile cases, including the assassination of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink. Arslan is the author of four books and has received journalism awards for his investigative work.Currently living in exile in Washington, D.C., he continues his journalism through digital media platforms, including his YouTube Channel, Turkish Minute, TR724 and X.