Tarık Toros*
The world is on the brink of a profound transformation. The postwar order that shaped our lives for decades is disintegrating. Familiar institutions, once seemingly unshakable, are faltering. Long-held values — human rights, democracy and the rule of law — are being redefined before our eyes.
We are not witnessing a mere transition. We are in the midst of a rupture, a fundamental shift with no clear destination. The habits of the old world are fading, and the contours of what comes next remain uncertain.
The old order is collapsing
The post-World War II framework, built on treaties and global institutions, is unraveling. The pillars of stability — diplomacy, economic cooperation and legal norms — are eroding. The rules that governed international relations for decades are losing relevance, and what replaces them is unclear. This is not just change — it is upheaval. We are entering an era of unpredictability, an age of disorder where old assumptions no longer hold. No one knows what kind of world will emerge from the wreckage.
Political realities are being rewritten
Donald Trump returned to the White House on January 20, sending shockwaves through the world. His first month alone has upended the global order. His call to annex Gaza and his branding of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a “dictator” have shattered traditional alliances. The US political system itself is in flux, caught in an internal battle over what America stands for. What remains of the country’s role as a global leader is uncertain.
The White House has effectively abandoned Europe. NATO is in crisis. The European Union, along with the now non-EU United Kingdom, is being sidelined from key geopolitical negotiations. Meanwhile, Russia, China and India are recalibrating at record speed, leaving a weakened Europe struggling to adjust. Global leadership is no longer centered in the West; the balance of power is shifting, and those who fail to adapt will be left behind.
The media landscape is in ruins
The collapse of traditional media has left a vacuum, now filled with chaos. Legacy news institutions are losing their influence, while social media — once seen as an alternative — has devolved into a battlefield of propaganda and manipulation. The distinction between journalism and disinformation is fading. Algorithm-driven echo chambers are shaping public perception, reinforcing biases rather than challenging them.
Censorship, fake news and manufactured outrage dominate the digital landscape. What was once a tool for democratizing information has become a weapon for controlling narratives. The old ideal of an informed public is slipping away, replaced by a fragmented society where truth itself is up for debate. In this new media order, perception is more powerful than reality, and those who control the flow of information wield unprecedented influence.
Human rights are no longer universal
The core principles of democracy — law, justice and individual rights — are being rewritten to serve those in power. Freedoms are increasingly conditional. Speech is permitted only within tightly controlled parameters, dictated not by democratic institutions but by corporate interests and artificial intelligence. Digital surveillance, biometric tracking and social media censorship are rapidly reshaping civil liberties.
The rule of law is no longer determined by states alone. Private corporations and algorithmic governance now shape legal frameworks, often beyond public scrutiny. Elections, once the hallmark of democracy, are being hollowed out, reduced to symbolic exercises in manufactured consent. Democracy itself is being redefined — not as the expression of the people’s will, but as a tool for manipulating the majority. The question is no longer whether authoritarianism is rising, but whether democracy, as we once understood it, can survive at all.
Turkey after Erdoğan: a nation at a crossroads
After 22 years in power, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has turned Turkey into an open-air prison. Yet, he stands at his most vulnerable moment — economically, politically and diplomatically. His exit is inevitable. The question is how.
An electoral defeat remains the most likely outcome. Turkey’s economic crisis and an increasingly frustrated electorate could lead to his removal at the ballot box. But with tight control over media and election security, Erdoğan’s departure is far from guaranteed. The opposition remains fractured, lacking a unifying figure capable of rallying enough support to ensure a transition of power. Even if he loses an election, the mechanisms he has put in place over the past two decades could delay or obstruct his departure.
Internal power struggles could also weaken his grip. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is built around Erdoğan’s personal authority rather than strong institutional structures, making it vulnerable to fractures. His coalition with the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is fragile, and any shift in alliances could alter the balance of power. But Erdoğan is a master of political survival, adept at playing his rivals against each other to maintain control.
An economic collapse could trigger mass protests, but Turkey’s transformation into a security state makes large-scale uprisings increasingly unlikely. Since the 2013 Gezi protests, Erdoğan has methodically dismantled dissent through aggressive policing and judicial repression. Fear now governs the streets, and even casual political conversations have become dangerous. The military, once a powerful political actor in Turkey, has been reshaped by Erdoğan’s purges, making a coup unlikely.
The most significant external threat to Erdoğan’s rule could come from international legal action. If global courts or Western governments move against him, the dynamics within Turkey could shift. But Erdoğan has shown time and again that he knows how to adapt. During the Syrian crisis, he pivoted between the Kremlin and Washington. During the Ukraine war, he hosted Zelensky while maintaining ties with Russia. He plays crises to his advantage, using nationalist rhetoric to consolidate his support base. Betting against his survival has often proved premature.
The age of uncertainty
The world is changing, and the old guard is struggling to keep up. Definitions of law, war, peace and human dignity are being rewritten — not by citizens, but by power structures beyond their control. The fundamental question is this: Will the individual have a place in this new order, or are we witnessing the end of personal agency?
As the ground shifts beneath us, one thing remains certain — we must stay vigilant, ask the hard questions and resist the urge to accept uncertainty as inevitability. The fight for democracy, human rights and truth is not over. It has only entered a new phase.
*Tarık Toros is a well-known journalist and political commentator currently living in exile in the UK. He was previously the editor-in-chief of Bugün TV, which was seized by the Turkish government in 2015 and subsequently closed down. Toros co-founded MoonStar TV, a YouTube platform dedicated to providing independent journalism for Turkish-speaking audiences. Through his personal channel and other platforms, he analyzes political developments, governance and social issues in Turkey.