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Turkey was gripped by uncertainty Wednesday ahead of an imminent statement by jailed Kurdish militant leader Abdullah Öcalan, founder of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the impact of which is impossible to predict.
Serving life without parole on a prison island near İstanbul since 1999, Öcalan could use the February 15 anniversary of his arrest to address Ankara’s call for the PKK to lay down its arms, possibly securing himself an early release.
The PKK has waged a decades-long war against Turkey and is banned as a terrorist group by Ankara and its Western allies.
Öcalan, 75, has said he was “determined” to be involved in a process that would turn the page on a conflict that has left at least 40,000 dead since 1984.
But some are skeptical it would happen on the date when Öcalan was caught by Turkish security forces in a Hollywood-style operation in Nairobi.
Should Öcalan make the call, it remains far from clear what he stands to gain from the unprecedented olive branch that was extended with the blessing of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
“What did Erdoğan propose? We don’t know anything, is he ready for concessions?” wondered Hamit Bozarslan, a Paris-based specialist on Kurdish issues.
“Öcalan calling on his followers to lay down their arms does not mean a capitulation nor a renunciation of the right to defend the legitimacy of the Kurdish cause,” he argued.
Speaking on Wednesday, Tuncer Bakırhan, co-chair of the pro-Kurdish People’s Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) said Öcalan was “preparing the formula for an honorable solution to the Kurdish question.”
“We don’t know its exact content, but we know it will include a message regarding a democratic response to the Kurdish question,” he said in Diyarbakır, a Kurdish-majority city in the southeast.
What of PKK in Syria, Iraq?
Another unknown is how any such call would resonate among PKK militants in the mountains of northern Iraq or in northeastern Syria, where the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are fighting with Ankara-backed militias.
Ankara views the US-backed SDF with hostility, alleging its main element, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), is an extension of the PKK.
The SDF runs a huge semi-autonomous Kurdish-led administration in northeastern Syria that flanks the Turkish border, in another element which will play into the mix.
Turkey is relying on Syria’s new rulers to address its security concerns.
Speaking on Wednesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the stance of Syria’s new interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa “on the fate of the PKK/YPG is perfectly clear,” expressing confidence he would “address Turkey’s security needs.”
His remarks came a day after al-Sharaa’s first official visit to Turkey.
US stance key
Although al-Sharaa has rejected any form of Kurdish self-rule and urged the SDF to hand over its weapons, regional actors know much will depend on US President Donald Trump and his new administration.
“This is absolutely key,” said Bozarslan.
“There can be no [SDF] agreement with Damascus without the northeast making huge concessions or without sufficient security guarantees for the Turks,” warned a European researcher speaking on condition of anonymity.
“The PKK may pretend to comply with Öcalan’s call while keeping its weapons. … But there’s also the leadership issue,” he said.
Despite spending years behind bars and even taking a “progressive” turn, “Öcalan remains the guiding light, the ever-present reference point” for the Kurdish movement, said Boris James, a French historian specializing in the Kurds.
Öcalan’s image is present at every Kurdish demonstration and during the celebrations in March of Newroz, or Kurdish New Year.
“If Öcalan does not lead the troops, it doesn’t mean he’s out of the game. The movement needs him to stay unified,” James argued.
Another question is the DEM Party: Would be possible for Ankara to reach any kind of deal with Öcalan without guarantees for the Kurdish movement’s political wing, parliament’s third largest party?
A delegation of DEM lawmakers have twice visited Öcalan on the prison island of İmralı in recent months.
But two of the party’s former leaders are still languishing behind bars, one of whom is the charismatic Selahattin Demirtaş, who was arrested in 2016 and sentenced last May to 42 years in prison.
And eight DEM Party mayors elected in last year’s local elections have been removed and replaced by government-appointed administrators.
© Agence France-Presse