Turkish Environment Minister Murat Kurum has renewed his warning about a massive earthquake that seismologists predict is likely to strike İstanbul by 2030, saying the tremor could bring down 600,000 houses and impact millions in Turkey’s largest city, the state-run Anadolu news agency reported on Tuesday.
Situated near the North Anatolian Fault, İstanbul is vulnerable to earthquakes.
In 2001, two years after a 7.4-magnitude earthquake left 17,000 people dead in northwest Turkey, experts calculated a 65 percent probability that a quake with a magnitude above 7 would occur before 2030 in the same region — which includes İstanbul.
The risk climbs to 75 percent in 50 years and 95 percent in 90 years.
Kurum spoke at a symposium organized by the Presidential Communications Directorate on the anniversary of the February 2023 earthquakes, which hit 11 provinces in southern and southeastern Turkey, killing 53,725 people, injuring more than 107,000 and leaving millions homeless after thousands of buildings collapsed.
“İstanbul does not have the capacity to withstand another earthquake,” the minister said, adding that one in every five houses in İstanbul — nearly 1.5 million — are considered structurally unstable, with approximately 600,000 homes at risk of collapsing within the first few minutes of a potential earthquake, putting millions in danger.
“Unfortunately, millions of İstanbulites are living in 600,000 homes that could collapse at any moment. That’s why I say we must accelerate the urban transformation projects we’ve started in İstanbul,” Kurum said.
He stated that as part of these projects, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has facilitated the rebuilding of 907,000 independent units in İstanbul so far and that the reconstruction of 193,000 homes and workplaces is still ongoing across the city.
Urban transformation involves the demolition of poorly constructed buildings and their replacement with new ones that comply with earthquake regulations. In these projects, private construction companies enter into contracts with building owners. The government does not cover the cost of the new buildings but assists families in securing loans from banks at lower interest rates. Additionally, the government provides financial support to help cover rent while their new building or apartment is under construction. Despite living in shoddy buildings, many families are unable to have their homes replaced due to the financial challenges they face.
The minister also referred to recent intensified seismic activity in the Cyclades Islands, located in the Aegean Sea, with approximately 600 earthquakes occurring over the past several days, noting that the ongoing tremors highlight the critical and urgent need for earthquake preparedness.
Kurum made a similar warning back in August, saying that at least 2.5 million people in İstanbul were at risk and that a possible earthquake is expected to affect not only the country’s business hub but Turkey as a whole.
In the event of a major earthquake in the Marmara region, cities and industrial areas near İstanbul are also expected to be impacted. Experts express concern about potential secondary disasters, such as fires and chemical leaks, which could exacerbate the impact of an earthquake.
Before the administration of İstanbul was taken over by the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) after the 2019 elections, the city had been under the governance of the AKP, which has been ruling Turkey as a single-party government since 2002.
The AKP and Kurum, who also served as environment minister between 2018 and 2023, are accused of failing to take necessary precautions against a possible earthquake in the city, having destroyed much of its green areas and allowing high-rise buildings and shoddy construction in the city despite the risk of an earthquake.
Kurum’s first term was marked by decisions often viewed as harmful to the environment and public safety.
Legislation for a so-called “construction amnesty,” under which previously illegal buildings were approved without requiring that they comply with an updated building code, was passed shortly before Kurum’s appointment as minister in 2018. During his term in office, a total of 438,000 property owners benefited from the legislation and had their buildings approved by paying a fine without the need to conform to the building code, putting the responsibility for earthquake readiness on the property owners.
This policy was criticized for increasing the risk of earthquake damage and allowing uncontrolled construction without paying due attention to safety. The major earthquakes in February 2023 increased questions about the government’s responsibility for the high death toll, which many attributed to the actions taken by the AKP such as the construction amnesty.
Kurum, whose campaign had the personal backing of Erdoğan, lost the İstanbul mayoral race against opposition candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu on March 31 of last year, getting only 39.5 percent of the vote, while İmamoğlu received 51.1 percent.