Turkey may accept Kurdish self-rule in Syria if PKK disarms: analyst

Turkey may be willing to recognize Kurdish self-rule in Syria in exchange for the disarmament of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an analyst familiar with current peace talks wrote on the Rudaw news website on Thursday, citing anonymous sources within the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the pro-Kurdish People’s Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party).

A potential shift in Turkey’s stance on Rojava, the Kurdish-led autonomous region in northeastern Syria, is reportedly being discussed behind closed doors as part of a broader effort to resolve Ankara’s decades-long conflict with Kurdish militants. Sources within the AKP and the DEM Party told analyst Ömer Sönmez that Turkey is exploring the possibility of establishing official relations with the Kurdish-controlled region if the PKK agrees to dissolve its armed wing.

The latest speculation follows a rare meeting on December 28 between Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned PKK leader, and a delegation from the DEM Party on İmralı Island. It was Öcalan’s first known contact with political representatives in more than nine years.

Following that meeting, DEM Party representatives met with several political parties, including the AKP, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), in what was seen as an effort to gauge support for a renewed peace process.

Sırrı Süreyya Önder, a senior DEM Party figure and key negotiator in previous peace talks, announced that the party would soon request another visit to İmralı to continue discussions with Öcalan.

According to Sönmez’s sources, the Turkish government is considering a phased approach, with the release of sick and elderly prisoners held on charges of PKK membership as an initial confidence-building measure. In return, the PKK is expected to take steps toward disarmament, paving the way for a broader political settlement that could include a shift in Turkey’s Syria policy.

Turkey has long viewed the PKK and its Syrian affiliate, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), as national security threats. However, shifting dynamics in the Middle East, including the recent ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the Biden administration’s calls for a “managed transition” in Syria, have reportedly influenced Ankara’s calculations.

According to Rudaw’s analysis, US and UK officials have encouraged Turkey to engage in discussions about Rojava’s future as part of efforts to stabilize Syria. Washington has also warned Ankara against a new military offensive in northern Syria, where Turkish forces have launched multiple operations since 2016 to curb YPG influence.

A senior AKP official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Rudaw that “Ankara’s acceptance of Qamishli [Rojava] would benefit both Turkey and the Kurds in the region.” The official suggested that Turkey could adopt an approach similar to its past dealings with Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), with which it now has strong trade and diplomatic ties despite initial opposition.

Meanwhile, a senior PKK official in northern Iraq told Reuters that the group would be willing to leave Syria if the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which includes YPG fighters, retains a leadership role in the region.

“Any initiative resulting in the governance of northeastern Syria under the control of the SDF, or in which they have a significant role in joint leadership, will lead us to agree to leave the region,” the PKK official said.

Ankara has long insisted that the YPG, which it considers an extension of the PKK, be dismantled.

Despite the positive tone from the DEM Party, which described its meetings as “sincere and encouragingly positive,” the path to a final agreement remains uncertain. While Kurdish political leaders are cautiously optimistic, there is skepticism over whether Ankara would follow through on recognizing Rojava’s autonomy, given its longstanding opposition to Kurdish self-rule near its borders.

Political observers note that Turkey’s domestic political climate, particularly Erdoğan’s need to keep his nationalist base happy, will play a crucial role in determining whether talks advance.

Analysts suggest that the next round of talks with Öcalan could provide more clarity on whether a historic compromise is within reach.

Despite the speculation on possible Turkish recognition of Rojava, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently warned that Turkey would not tolerate any arrangement that allowed for the presence of the YPG or PKK.

“Following the second meeting between the DEM Party delegation and İmralı, the end of the existence of the PKK should be announced without any preconditions,” MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, a key ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, also said at a party meeting.

However, many question the substance of this rhetoric, arguing that it is unrealistic to expect the PKK to end more than four decades of armed struggle and disband without any concessions.

A potential quid pro quo could see the PKK disarming in exchange for Kurdish forces securing a statelet in Syria, adjacent to the autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq.