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Pro-gov’t survey shows ruling AKP falling 5.4 points behind main opposition CHP

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The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) would have received 5.4 points less support than the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) in a possible parliamentary election in August, the results of a public survey conducted by the pro-government BETİMAR company have revealed.

The survey was conducted with the participation of 1,500 respondents across 26 provinces. The respondents identified themselves as follows: conservative (12.5 percent), Muslim/Islamist (21.3 percent), Atatürkist/secular (24.8 percent), Turkish nationalist (21.1 percent), Kurdish nationalist (1.9 percent), democrat/social democrat (7.5 percent) and other (6.1 percent), with 4.9 percent providing no response.

According to the results shared by Sözcü daily columnist Aytunç Erkin in an article on Friday, the AKP, which has been ruling Turkey as a single-party government since 2002, would have had a nationwide vote of 29.3 percent, while support for the main opposition would have been 34.7 percent, if a general election were to have been held in August.

The figures also showed the AKP’s far-right ally the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) at 9.9 percent, followed by the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) (8 percent), the Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP) (6.5 percent), the far-right and anti-refugee Victory Party (ZP) (3.9 percent), the nationalist opposition İYİ (Good) Party (3.2 percent) and the Workers’ Party of Turkey (TİP) (1 percent).

When compared with the votes received in the May 14 general election last year, support for the ruling AKP decreased by 5.9 points, falling from 35.3 percent to 29.4 percent, while the CHP’s votes surged by 9.3 points, increasing from 25.4 percent to 34.7 percent, according to the poll results.

Erkin also cited the answers to the question “How successful do you find CHP leader Özgür Özel’s general approach to the country’s issues and his overall political style?” While only 28.9 percent said they find him “unsuccessful” or “very unsuccessful,” 10.4 percent said they find him “very successful,” 22.8 percent said they consider him to be “successful” and 37.9 percent said they find him “somewhat successful.”

The survey comes after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling AKP suffered its worst election defeat since coming to power two decades ago in the March 31 local polls, where the CHP emerged as the country’s leading party after decades out of power, triggering discussions of an early general election. The next general election in Turkey is scheduled for 2028.

The columnist said that the results of a survey conducted by a company with close ties to the ruling party showing the CHP leading the ruling AKP by 5.4 points highlight the importance of the country’s economic situation in the elections.

Over the past several years Turkey has been suffering from a deteriorating economy, with high inflation and unemployment as well as a poor human rights record. President Erdoğan is criticized for mishandling the economy, emptying the state’s coffers and establishing one-man rule in the country where dissent is suppressed and opponents are jailed on politically motivated charges.

In August inflation stood at 52 percent over the past year, and the lira has lost more than 80 percent of its value against the dollar in the past five years. It has been the worst performer in emerging markets for several years running due largely to economic and monetary policy concerns under the government of Erdoğan.

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