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Survey shows İstanbul mayor 5 points ahead of AKP candidate in local election

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İstanbul’s incumbent mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), is polling 5 five points ahead of the mayoral candidate of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), according to the results of a recent survey.

The survey, conducted by the İstanbul-based Spectrum House think tank, shows İmamoğlu garnering 43.9 percent of the vote, while AKP candidate Murat Kurum, a former minister, receives 39 percent.

Ten days remain before Turkey’s local elections, scheduled for March 31.

The survey was conducted between March 15 and 20 across 26 İstanbul districts with the participation of 2,158 people.

The other mayoral candidates in İstanbul, Meral Danış Beştaş and Murat Çepni from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) receive 4.7 percent of the vote; nationalist İYİ (Good) Party candidate Buğra Kavuncu gets 2.6 percent; and New Welfare Party (YRP) candidate Mehmet Altınöz garners 3.7 percent, while the far-right, anti-refugee Victory Party (ZP) candidate Azmi Karamahmutoğlu wins 3.3 percent, according to the survey.

While the DEM Party’s predecessor, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), supported İmamoğlu in the 2019 election and did not field its own candidate, the DEM Party decided to enter the mayoral race with its own candidate this time due to resentment and disagreements with the CHP.

Likewise, the YRP, which took part in an election alliance including President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AKP and the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in the general and presidential elections in May, refused to support the AKP candidate in İstanbul in the local election and nominated its own candidate.

The change in the political alliances could affect the result of the election in İstanbul, where İmamoğlu may suffer from the lack of support from Kurdish voters.

İmamoğlu, who is viewed as Erdoğan’s most powerful political rival, ended the years-long AKP rule in İstanbul when he defeated the party’s candidate in a repeat election in 2019. The election was held a second time due to the AKP’s claims about irregularities in the vote, as a result of which İmamoğlu won by an even greater margin.

He faces a political ban and a prison sentence in a politically motivated trial, if upheld by the top appeals court, on insult charges based on his remarks about election authority officials in 2019.

President Erdoğan nominated Kurum, a former environment minister and current AKP lawmaker, as his party’s mayoral candidate to win back İstanbul from İmamoğlu on January 7.

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