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130,000 lost souls: Remarks by ex-minister bring official quake toll into question

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The ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) mayoral candidate for İstanbul, a former minister, said on live television on Wednesday that Turkey had lost 130,000 people while talking about the city’s earthquake preparedness and the major tremors in February that affected 11 provinces, casting doubt on the official death toll of 50,783.

İstanbul, Turkey’s most densely populated city, is situated near the North Anatolian Fault, and its municipality says there are more than 200,000 residential buildings that are at risk of collapsing in the event of a major earthquake.

Murat Kurum, who was nominated by party leader and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as the AKP’s candidate for mayor of İstanbul, was environment minister from 2018 to 2023 and thus responsible for the country’s building stock at the time of the disaster on February 6 of last year.

“We will exert all efforts, we will transform [İstanbul]. There’s no other solution. Mr. Candaş, 130,000 people have lost their lives. You see, there were earthquakes in 11 provinces. You see, [a possible] İstanbul [earthquake] can compete with 11 provinces. If something happens to İstanbul, God forbid, the country is lost, the flag is lost, the state is lost. That’s why we say that this is just as important as the fight against terrorism,” Kurum said while talking about the earthquake in a live broadcast on TV100 on Tuesday.

His remarks were followed by a flurry of criticism on social media over what many saw as a momentary lapse in which a government official blurted out the actual death toll from the February earthquakes as opposed to the official figure, which some believe was minimized to downplay the scale of the disaster ahead of the May elections, which Erdoğan narrowly won.

“I asked Murat Kurum again after the program about his statement that ‘130,000 people died in earthquakes.’ He said this figure did not refer to the earthquakes on February 6, but to the approximate total number of people who have died in earthquakes in the history of the Republic of Turkey,” Candaş Tolga Işık, the host of the program Kurum appeared on, posted on X to clarify.

However, this explanation was not considered satisfactory as the total number of deaths in earthquakes in Turkish history was estimated by some to be 106,000, while others refer to a figure of more than 150,000. The way Kurum worded the sentence and the context indicate that Kurum was referring to the death toll in February, according to journalist Bülent Mumay.

“I thought we had 50,000 fatalities. Why did you conceal the figure of 130,000? You have been in power since 2002. If the state and the flag are at stake in a possible earthquake in İstanbul, what did you do for the 21 years [in which you ruled]?” far-right Victory Party (ZP) leader Ümit Özdağ asked on X.

Özdağ’s criticism was also shared by others since Erdoğan and after him his AKP ruled İstanbul between 1994-2019, and the president’s party has been in power since 2002.

“You ruled this city for 25 years. You opened up for rent all military areas and earthquake assembly points, and erected skyscrapers. Do you care about the earthquake?” journalist İsmail Arı tweeted.

A 7.6-magnitude earthquake with an epicenter in İzmit, some 100 kilometers east of İstanbul, killed more than 17,000 people in 1999.

The number of İstanbulites has roughly doubled since then, to 16 million people.

In the event of a major earthquake in the Marmara region, not only will İstanbul be affected, but also nearby cities and industrial zones. Experts express concern about potential secondary disasters, such as fires and chemical leaks, which could exacerbate the impact of an earthquake.

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