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Kılıçdaroğlu will be just short of victory in first round, survey predicts

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Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the joint presidential candidate of Turkey’s opposition, is leading in the polls against his main rival, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but the election does not produce a decisive outcome in its first round this Sunday, according to the results of a public survey conducted by the Konda polling company.

The Konda survey showed Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the joint presidential candidate of an opposition alliance, garnering 49.3 percent of the vote, while Erdoğan’s vote stands at 43.7 percent.

A presidential candidate must win more than 50 percent of the vote to be elected in the first round of the race. If none of the candidates manages to exceed 50 percent, a second round will be held two weeks later, following which the candidate who gets the most votes will be elected to the top state post.

Due to the slight margin of 0.8 percent, Turkey will have to hold a run-off, according to Konda, which conducted its survey across 35 provinces with the participation of 3,480 respondents May 6-7.

On the day Konda announced the results of its survey, one of the presidential candidates, Muharrem İnce, leader of the Homeland Party, announced his withdrawal from the race. İnce’s move is likely to boost the chances of Kılıçdaroğlu winning against Erdoğan in the first round.

According to Konda, İnce would have received 2.2 percent of the vote, while the vote for Sinan Oğan, a joint presidential candidate of a group of far-right parties, was around 4.8 percent.

Considering the percentage of votes political alliances would get, as Turkey will also hold parliamentary elections on Sunday, the results of the Konda survey showed the vote of the Public Alliance, which comprises Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and several other small right-wing parties, standing at 44 percent, while the vote of the Nation Alliance, which includes the CHP, the nationalist İYİ (Good) Party and four other small opposition parties, standing at 39.9 percent.

The nationwide support for the Labor and Freedom Alliance, a group of left-wing parties including the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), stands at 12.3 percent.

Meanwhile, a survey recently conducted by Metropoll has also shown a second round will be necessary in the presidential election, with Kılıçdaroğlu getting 49.1 percent of the vote to Erdoğan’s 46.9 percent.

In Metropoll’s survey, İnce would receive 1.3 percent of the vote, while Oğan would garner 2.7 percent.

Differing from the results of the Konda opinion poll, the Metropoll survey has the opposition alliance winning a majority of seats in parliament.

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