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MetroPoll survey shows Erdoğan losing presidency to each of 5 potential rivals

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would have been defeated by each of five potential presidential candidates if an election had been held in July, local media reported on Monday, citing the results of a survey conducted by the Ankara-based MetroPoll.

The results of the poll titled “Turkey’s Pulse – July 2022,” which was conducted on 2,091 participants in 28 provinces between July 11 and 16, were shared Monday by the pollster on social media.

The results showed ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) leader Erdoğan being defeated by each of his potential rivals: main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu; İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş, both also from the CHP; İYİ (Good) Party leader Meral Akşener; and Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) leader Ali Babacan in a possible presidential election in which one of them is running against the incumbent president.

According to the survey, in the event Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu qualify for the second round of a presidential election, Kılıçdaroğlu would receive 42.7 percent of the vote and Erdoğan 45.4 percent, with undecided votes accounting for 11.9 percent.

In a scenario in which İstanbul Mayor İmamoğlu runs for president against Erdoğan, İmamoğlu would defeat Erdoğan by a more than 6-point margin, with Erdoğan garnering 42.3 percent and İmamoğlu receiving 48.6 percent of the vote.

Ankara Mayor Yavaş, too, defeats Erdoğan hands down as 37.7 percent of respondents said they would vote for Erdoğan, while 53.9 percent opted for Yavaş, resulting in a more than 16-point difference in favor of Yavaş.

When Erdoğan is pitted against İYİ leader Akşener, Erdoğan and Akşener would receive 42.3 percent and 46.4 percent, respectively.

The poll also showed Erdoğan receiving 41.2 percent of the vote when DEVA leader Babacan runs for president against him, with Babacan garnering 44.5 percent.

Erdoğan, whose ruling AKP has been in power as a single-party government since 2002, was elected president in 2014 and re-elected in 2018. His election in 2018 was under a presidential system as Turkey switched from a parliamentary to a presidential system of governance with a public referendum in 2017.

Under the presidential system, Erdoğan is accused by critics of establishing one-man rule in the country, engaging in massive corruption and using the state’s resources for the benefit of his family and cronies while the Turkish people are overwhelmed by the increasing cost of living caused by the depreciation of the Turkish lira and a record level of inflation at around 78.6 percent.

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