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Reuters poll expects 2.8 percent growth for Turkish economy at yearend

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Turkey’s economic growth is expected to fall to 2.0 percent in the third quarter of the year and hit 2.8 percent for all of 2018, according to a Reuters poll, as record-high inflation and the lingering effects of a currency crisis continue to take a toll on the economy.

The lira has collapsed more than 40 percent against the US dollar this year, pushing up prices across the board and sending annual inflation to nearly 25 percent, its highest rate in 15 years.

While the lira has started rebounding thanks to measures taken by the government and central bank, the recovery has been limited. Inflation fell from its record rate in November, but still stood above 20 percent.

Turkey’s economy surged 7.4 percent in the first quarter of this year and 5.2 percent in the second half, but economists expect the slowdown to become more apparent in the third quarter.

The average of a Reuters poll of 15 economists had the economy expanding 2.0 percent in the third quarter.

A Reuters poll of 46 economists in October had suggested that growth would fall short of sharply lowered government forecasts this year and next, and officially enter a recession — defined as consecutive quarters of negative growth — in early 2019.

Finance Minister Berat Albayrak announced in September that the government foresaw 3.8 percent growth this year and 2.3 percent in 2019. A central bank poll last month put growth forecasts at 3.1 percent for 2018.

Last year, Turkey’s GDP grew 7.4 percent.

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