Central bank poll: Turkish lira will be valued at 5.97 to the US dollar at yearend

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REUTERS / Umit Bektas

Turkey’s central bank has released its expectations poll for August 2018 in which it forecast the value of the lira against the US dollar to be 5.97 at the end of the year, an increase from the 4.83 of a previous poll, the NTV news website reported on Friday.

The expectation for the valuation of the lira to the dollar for the same month of next year also rose from 5.06 to 6.29.

The forecast for the consumer price index (CPI) for August 2018 increased from 0.59 percent to 1.15, whereas CPI expectations for September and October were 1.25 and 1.50 percent, respectively.

As regards the annualized CPI at yearend, the expectation went from 13.88 to 16.45 percent. The CPI predicted for the next 12-month and 24-month periods rose from 11.07 percent to 12.96 percent and from 9.54 percent to 10.67 percent, respectively.

On the other hand, the poll projected that the yearend current account deficit will stand at $52.7 billion, which represents a decline compared to the previous poll in which it was $54.8 billion. The current account deficit forecast for 2019 also decreased from $50.3 billion to $47.2 billion.

GDP growth predicted for 2018 dropped from 4.2 percent to 3.9 percent, while expectations for GDP growth in 2019 declined from 4 percent to 3.5 percent.

The poll was published with the participation of 61 finance experts, executives and professionals.

A recent currency crisis caused a plunge in the Turkish lira, which has seen a drop of nearly 50 percent in value since the beginning of this year. Consequently, the inflation numbers and forecasts have gone up significantly in the last few months.

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