 said inflation instead rose to 54.62 percent from 54.14 percent, diverging not only in the scale of price growth but also in its direction.){kind=link}
Turkey’s annual inflation rate slowed to 30.87 percent in March from 31.53 percent in February according to official data, but an independent gauge by the Inflation Research Group (ENAG) said inflation instead rose to 54.62 percent from 54.14 percent, diverging not only in the scale of price growth but also in its direction.
Consumer prices rose 1.94 percent month on month, according to data released Friday by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the state statistics agency. ENAG, an independent group of economists, said consumer prices rose 4.10 percent in March from the previous month.
What made March data notable is that the TurkStat and ENAG figures pointed in different directions at a time when energy costs were under fresh pressure from the Iran war. Oil prices surged through March as the conflict shook global markets and raised concern about supply disruptions, a development likely to add to inflation risks for energy importers such as Turkey.
A Reuters poll had forecast monthly inflation of 2.32 percent and annual inflation of 31.4 percent, meaning the official March reading came in below expectations.
The divergence also came as Turkey’s central bank was under pressure to reassess its easing cycle. Another Reuters poll in March showed that the bank was expected to pause rate cuts because of the fallout from the Iran war, while policymakers had already signaled readiness to tighten again if needed to contain risks to inflation.
ENAG has long reported higher inflation than the official data, but a split in direction is rarer and matters more for policy because a reported slowdown in annual inflation can strengthen the case for keeping rate cuts on the table, while a renewed increase would point the other way.
Turkey has faced persistent price pressure for years. Official data show annual consumer inflation has remained in double digits since 2019 and climbed above 75 percent in May 2024 before starting to fall. Inflation remains one of the main economic issues facing the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan after years of a high cost of living and currency weakness.
Turkey’s central bank said in February that it kept its yearend 2026 inflation target at 16 percent, even as it raised its forecast range to 15 to 21 percent.