 has grown significantly in recent months, but skepticism over the chance of success remains high, according to a new nationwide poll.){kind=link}
Public support for renewed peace talks between the Turkish government and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has grown significantly in recent months, but skepticism over the chance of success remains high, according to a new nationwide poll.
The survey, conducted by the Rawest Research Center between May 13 and 23 across 21 provinces and on 2,010 participants, follows a pivotal announcement by the PKK in early May that it would lay down its arms and disband in response to an appeal from its imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan.
Previous peace talks, including a high-profile process between 2013 and 2015, collapsed without resolution.
Support for what is being called a “new peace process” has risen to nearly two-thirds of respondents, up from around 45 percent in October. The highest approval comes from Kurdish respondents, 81 percent of whom back the initiative. Support among Turks and other ethnic groups has also grown, reaching as high as 60 percent in some segments.
Despite the surge in public backing, confidence in the process remains fragile. Only 41.7 percent of participants believe the peace initiative is on the right track, while 29.2 percent view it as failing. The rest were undecided or neutral.
Among political party supporters, optimism is most pronounced among voters of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), 70 percent of whom believe the talks are progressing. In contrast, majorities of voters from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the nationalist İYİ (Good) Party see the process as unsuccessful. Pro-Kurdish opposition People’s Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) voters were more hopeful, with 49 percent viewing the process as successful and only 29 percent describing it as failing.
A shifting political climate
The latest peace efforts were sparked last October when Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a close ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, unexpectedly suggested a peaceful resolution could be possible if Öcalan rejected violence. Erdoğan later echoed the sentiment, and the PKK followed with its pledge to lay down arms during a congress held in May.
The PKK, designated a terrorist organization by Turkey and its Western allies, has waged an armed insurgency since 1984, resulting in more than 40,000 deaths. While once demanding Kurdish independence, the group now focuses on greater autonomy and cultural rights.
Survey respondents expressed strong support for cultural and judicial reforms, with 69 percent favoring regional development policies and 60 percent backing the use of Kurdish in local governance.
Neither Öcalan nor the PKK set any preconditions publicly for the group’s disbanding, but there are widespread expectations for judicial reform that will expand the cultural and political rights of the country’s Kurds and help PKK members integrate into society after laying down their arms.
Meanwhile, motives remain contested. More than half of respondents, 55.1 percent, believe the peace process is aimed at boosting Erdoğan’s re-election prospects. Among Kurdish participants, two-thirds say the initiative benefits both the AKP and the DEM Party.
Divisions over PKK dissolution and Demirtaş
Belief that the PKK will follow through on its promise to lay down arms varies sharply. While 63 percent of Kurdish respondents trust the group’s declaration, a majority of Turks and other ethnic groups remain unconvinced. Confidence is highest among DEM Party supporters (72 percent), followed by AKP voters (56 percent) and MHP voters (48 percent).
The potential release of Selahattin Demirtaş, the jailed former co-chair of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), remains deeply divisive. While 75 percent of Kurdish respondents support his release, only about a third of Turks agree. Among DEM Party voters, 55 percent believe Demirtaş, who has been behind bars since November 2016 on terrorism-related charges, could play a key role in resolving the Kurdish issue.
The Kurdish issue, a term prevalent in Turkey’s public discourse, refers to the demand for equal rights by the country’s Kurdish population and their struggle for recognition.
Expectations for the CHP’s involvement are high. Just 16 percent of all respondents say the party should oppose the talks. Among CHP voters, 58 percent favor a mediator role, while that number climbs to 85 percent among DEM Party supporters.
Despite rising support, the peace process is widely seen as uncertain. A majority of Kurds (60 percent) and over a third of Turkish and other ethnic groups say the Kurdish issue remains unresolved. The Turkish public appears cautiously hopeful, but wary, shaped by the collapse of previous efforts and the weight of unmet promises.