 has taken a clear lead over the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in a new poll, while the AKP’s far-right ally has fallen below the electoral threshold.){kind=link}
Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has taken a clear lead over the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in a new poll, while the AKP’s far-right ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), has fallen below the electoral threshold.
According to a survey by Turkish pollster Ser Research, conducted June 11–12 on 2,035 voters across 26 provinces, the CHP leads with 34.9 percent support, followed by the AKP at 29.4 percent. The results show a growing gap between the two major parties, with the CHP now 5.5 points ahead.
The poll also showed that the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) maintains a strong presence in Turkish politics with 10.1 percent support. However, the MHP — a key ally in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling bloc — has dropped below the 7 percent parliamentary threshold for the first time, receiving just 6.2 percent of the vote, marking a notable decline in public support.
Other parties trailed with single-digit support. The far-right and anti-refugee Victory Party (ZP) received 6.1 percent, followed by the Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP) with 4.7 percent and the nationalist opposition İYİ (Good) Party at 4.2 percent. The Workers’ Party of Turkey (TİP) garnered 1.4 percent, while all other parties combined accounted for 2.3 percent of the vote.
MAYIS 2025 SEÇMEN PARTİ TERCİHLERİ
CHP : %34,9
AK Parti : %29,4
DEM : %10,1
MHP : %6,9
ZAFER : %6,1
Y.REFAH : %4,7
İYİ Parti : %4,2
DİĞER : %2,3
11-12 Haziran tarihleri arasında, 26 İl(Nuts-2), 2035… pic.twitter.com/3Qf3YqafuE
— SER-AR (@SerArastirma) June 12, 2025
In April 2022 Turkey reduced its national election threshold from 10 percent to 7 percent, a move widely seen as aimed at helping the ruling AKP and its far-right ally retain parliamentary power amid declining public support. The change came as polls showed the MHP struggling to surpass the former threshold, prompting critics to argue that the amendment was motivated more by political survival than democratic reform.
In addition to party preferences, the poll asked respondents whether early elections should be held within the next year. A striking 67.3 percent said yes, while only 27.5 percent were opposed. Over 5 percent said they were undecided.
Sizce önümüzdeki 1 yıl içinde seçim olmalı mı?
(MAYIS – 2025)11-12 Haziran tarihleri arasında, 26 İl(Nuts-2), 2035 seçmen CATİ, güven aralığı %95, hata payı ±%1,95 olarak belirlenmiştir.#Seçim #ErkenSeçim #GenelSeçim pic.twitter.com/jRw0tLARXQ
— SER-AR (@SerArastirma) June 12, 2025
The findings reflect mounting public pressure for change following the opposition’s strong performance in the March 2024 local elections, in which the CHP secured control of major cities including İstanbul and Ankara.
Although the next general election is scheduled for 2028, analysts say growing economic dissatisfaction and ongoing political turmoil — including a sweeping crackdown on opposition figures — are fueling speculation about the possibility of snap elections.
The recent crackdown on the opposition has intensified since the arrest of İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a leading challenger to President Erdoğan in the 2028 presidential race. İmamoğlu was detained on March 19 and later arrested on corruption charges widely viewed as politically motivated. The investigation has expanded to include 47 opposition-affiliated municipal officials, with 30 arrests reported in İstanbul and Adana. Critics see the sweeping probe as an attempt to weaken the opposition and consolidate power ahead of a possible snap election.
Over the past several years Turkey has also faced a deepening economic crisis marked by high inflation, a collapsing currency and widespread criticism of Erdoğan’s increasingly authoritarian rule. The Turkish lira has lost more than 95 percent of its value against the dollar over the past decade, and inflation officially stood at over 35 percent in May.
The declining support for the AKP and MHP, both of which have ruled in partnership for years, suggests that frustration with the government’s handling of the economy and its crackdown on dissent is continuing to erode their electoral base.