[OPINION] Are you sure Erdoğan is at the peak of his power?

Adem Yavuz Arslan*

Do you remember the “magic mirrors” in amusement parks? They used to distort your reflection, making you look taller, slimmer or stronger. For a moment, you’d feel good. But once you stepped out of that illusion-filled corridor and faced a regular mirror, the unfiltered reality stared back.

A recent Newsweek article about Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reminded me of those magic mirrors. The Erdoğan reflected in Newsweek’s narrative, depicted as “one of world’s most powerful men,” is far removed from the real Erdoğan visible to those living under his rule. The article even claims that Erdoğan’s power surged further during Donald Trump’s presidency. But does this portrayal align with the facts on the ground?

A media empire of illusions

During his 23-year rule, Erdoğan has gradually seized near-total control over Turkey’s media landscape, both traditional and digital. Today, the overwhelming majority of Turkish media outlets operate under his influence. The few remaining critical journalists tread carefully, avoiding topics that cross Erdoğan’s many red lines. It’s no surprise that Turkey has consistently been ranked among the worst jailers of journalists globally.

This media dominance functions much like those magic mirrors. Through government-aligned outlets, Erdoğan is presented as a towering global statesman. According to this narrative, the EU is supposedly kneeling before him, Syria’s future rests in his hands and US President Donald Trump is a personal ally who caters to his every demand. Pro-government spokespeople claim that Turkey under Erdoğan is not just a regional force but a rising global star with a booming economy and unmatched military might.

But what does the mirror of reality show?

Let’s first consider the domestic picture. Erdoğan came to power promising to fight corruption, reduce poverty and expand freedoms. Two decades later, Turkey is experiencing historic levels of poverty, rampant corruption and severe restrictions on civil liberties.

The ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) elite have accumulated massive wealth, while the average citizen has become poorer. The rule of law and democratic standards have plummeted. According to major international indices, Turkey ranks near the bottom in press freedom, judicial independence and democracy.

Erdoğan’s grip on power has grown more authoritarian. He recently had Ekrem İmamoğlu, the popular opposition mayor of İstanbul, detained and ordered the arrest of hundreds of critics, including university students. He’s pushing legislation that would strip local governments of their democratic mandates, transferring power from elected mayors to unelected, government-appointed bureaucrats.

Turkey is also facing a severe economic crisis, driven by corruption and mismanagement. The country has become a transit hub for Latin American drug trafficking. Organized crime networks in Turkey now rival those in Mexico. Despite the regime’s glowing self-image, the country is, in many ways, unraveling.

The PKK disbandment and the government’s reaction

A recent turning point in Turkish politics was the announcement that the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), designated a terrorist group by Turkey and its Western allies, would lay down arms and disband. Such a move naturally calls for reciprocal democratic steps from the government. Instead, Erdoğan’s rhetoric has hardened.

Astonishingly, three prominent political rivals of Erdoğan — İmamoğlu, Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtaş and far-right nationalist Ümit Özdağ — are all in prison and facing politically motivated prosecutions. Dozens of elected mayors have been removed from office and replaced by government-appointed trustees.

Erdoğa claims Turkey has a historic opportunity to resolve its decades-long Kurdish conflict. Yet political analysts agree: Without restoring the rule of law, any such claim is hollow. If the PKK lays down its arms, Erdoğan must also abandon the judiciary as a weapon against dissent.

Foreign policy: far from ‘global leadership’

Despite the government’s claims, Turkey’s foreign policy mirrors its internal dysfunction. Erdoğan’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly strained, especially after the fall of the Bashar al- Assad in Syria, undermining Turkish strategic goals. Erdoğan’s long-standing tactic of playing the US and Russia against each other has lost its effectiveness.

His rapport with Trump during his first term and now is warm but fraught with serious issues. The US imposed Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions over Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems, effectively halting Turkey’s access to next-generation American fighter jets. The ongoing Halkbank case in the US, concerning sanctions-busting on behalf of Iran, remains a legal and political nightmare for Erdoğan. While he tried to leverage his relationship with Trump to kill the case, he hasn’t succeeded.

One should also remember that Trump is notoriously unpredictable. After a disagreement with Erdoğan, he once wrote him a letter saying, “Don’t be a fool,” and threatened to destroy Turkey’s economy.

In the Middle East, things aren’t any better. Relations with Israel are at a breaking point. Tensions with Iran are growing. And Turkey’s role in Syria has become increasingly marginalized. Even in South Asia, Turkey’s support for Pakistan has alienated India, where an unofficial boycott of Turkish products is expanding.

A country of strategic value — not strategic strength

Yes, Turkey frequently appears in global headlines. But this visibility stems more from geography than global influence. Turkey sits at a valuable geopolitical crossroads, yet its institutions are crumbling. The regime’s international relevance is mostly a byproduct of location, not competence.

Conclusion: a decline in disguise

Despite the grandstanding and international coverage, Erdoğan is not at the height of his career. He’s facing serious health issues, overseeing an economy in freefall and presiding over record levels of corruption, poverty and repression.

The only real asset he has left is Turkey’s geographic leverage.

Far from being a “rising star,” Erdoğan’s regime is more like a hollow structure, built on strategic land but falling apart at the seams.

*Adem Yavuz Arslan is a journalist with over two decades of experience in political reporting, investigative journalism and international conflict coverage. His work has focused on Turkey’s political landscape, including detailed reporting on the 2016 coup attempt and its aftermath, as well as broader issues related to media freedom and human rights. He has reported from conflict zones such as Bosnia, Kosovo and Iraq, and has conducted in-depth research on high-profile cases, including the assassination of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink. Arslan is the author of four books and has received journalism awards for his investigative work. Currently living in exile in Washington, D.C., he continues his journalism through digital media platforms, including his YouTube channel, Turkish Minute, TR724 and X.