Turkey could face triple-digit inflation if oil rises to $200 a barrel, according to a report by the Cumhuriyet daily, which extrapolates predictions from published oil assumptions and pass-through calculations by Turkey’s central bank.
As the Iran war drives energy prices higher, a prolonged supply shock would put new pressure on inflation, growth and the current account in Turkey’s economy, which relies heavily on imported energy.
The central bank’s first inflation report of 2026 was based on an average Brent crude assumption of $58.8 for the March 2026 to February 2027 period, far below current market levels after the conflict pushed oil sharply upward. Reuters reported this week that analysts in its latest poll now expect Brent to average $82.85 in 2026, up sharply from the previous month’s forecast, while some scenarios see prices climbing much higher if supply disruptions persist.
According to Cumhuriyet’s calculations based on central bank data, if oil reaches $200 a barrel, Turkey’s inflation could move into the 80 percent to 100 percent range, with a risk of crossing into triple digits. That conclusion draws on a central bank analysis that said a 10 percent increase in Brent prices would raise consumer inflation by about 1 percentage point over the following 12 months.
Turkey’s annual inflation stood at 31.53 percent in February, and investors are now watching how much of the latest oil shock will feed into fuel, transport and food prices in the coming months.
The Strait of Hormuz normally hosts about 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, making the conflict a direct threat to countries dependent on imported fuel.