Ömer Murat*
The fragile peace in Syria nearly collapsed last week when violent clashes erupted in Suwayda in the south of the country. The escalation of hostilities exposed a deeper, more explosive fault line: the unresolved integration of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the Syrian state and their role in the country.
The conflict, in which Druze and Sunni Bedouin Arab tribes clashed with each other, with Sunni Bedouins backing the government of interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa while some Druze groups resisted its efforts to assert control in Suwayda, was a stark reminder of Syria’s fractured reality. Yet beneath the surface, a more perilous standoff is brewing between Damascus, the Kurdish-led SDF and regional powers including Turkey and Israel which portends the potential for igniting a new escalation.
The Suwayda crisis revealed the region’s volatility. Israel’s airstrikes on Damascus, targeting the Ministry of Defense and an area near the presidential palace, signaled Tel Aviv’s strategic preference for a weak, divided Syria over a unified state under Damascus’s control. Amid the chaos, Hikmat al-Hijri, a prominent Druze leader known for his ties to Israel, called for a land corridor linking Suwayda to SDF-controlled territories in northeastern Syria. SDF Commander Gen. Mazloum Abdi quickly endorsed the proposal, citing an urgent request from Suwayda residents to ensure civilian safety and halt the violence. “We are ready to assist,” Abdi declared, raising alarms in Ankara.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking at a press conference in Ankara on Tuesday, accused Israel of exploiting the Suwayda clashes to destabilize Syria under the guise of protecting the Druze minority, issued a sharp warning that any attempt by the SDF’s core faction, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), to exploit the crisis for separatist aims would be treated as a direct threat to Turkey’s national security.
The prospect of the “David Corridor,” an alleged Israeli-backed project to establish a land route from the occupied Golan Heights through southern Syria to the Euphrates (passing through Deraa, Suwayda, Al-Tanf, Deir Ezzor, and Albu Kamal), has become a prominent concern. Ankara perceives such a corridor, or any division of Syria, as a threat to its national security.
The Suwayda crisis highlights a broader dilemma regarding the integration of the SDF into Syria’s post-Assad framework. The Kurdish-led force is a key United States ally in the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and controls vast swaths of northeastern Syria, including Raqqa, Deir Ezzor and Hassakeh. However, the negotiations held in Damascus on July 9, mediated by US Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack, revealed irreconcilable differences.
The SDF has asserted its demand to maintain its autonomous military structure within the Syrian national army as well as to continue its deployments in strongholds. The Kurdish delegation also pushed for a decentralized governance model that would entrust them with extensive authority over northeastern Syria. Al-Sharaa’s government rejected these outright, insisting on centralized control over all regions, both militarily and administratively.
This deadlock reflects deeper mistrust. Al-Sharaa’s administration is reluctant to relinquish its authority to any autonomous force, especially one led by Kurds, who make up about 10 percent of Syria’s population. The situation is further complicated by ideological differences between the parties: The new regime that overthrew Assad has its roots in militant Islamism, while the YPG has a history rooted in Marxist-Leninist ideology.
Turkey’s involvement adds further complexity. Ankara asserts that the recent pledge of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to lay down its arms encompasses the YPG as well. However, Mazloum Abdi contests this, claiming that the YPG is not bound by the same obligations to engage in the disbanding process. Citing the support of jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan for peace negotiations, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan claims that Öcalan could influence the YPG to align with Turkey’s vision for a unified, non-threatening Syria. Portraits of Öcalan are displayed on public buildings in SDF-controlled areas, symbolizing his ongoing leadership over the YPG.
However, Cemil Bayık, co-chair of the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK), a political umbrella group including both the PKK and the YPG, has clarified that the group’s symbolic destruction of weapons gesture in northern Iraq on July 11 was contingent on Turkey improving Öcalan’s prison conditions so that he can communicate with the PKK leadership and enact certain democratic reforms. “Until that happens, no one can ask us to lay down our arms,” Bayık said last week. The government of President Erdoğan has yet to demonstrate any significant progress in addressing these issues.
The opacity of Turkey’s ongoing peace process with the PKK has led to a pervasive climate of skepticism. The Erdoğan regime has portrayed the new process to the public as a triumph of Turkish military might. However, the PKK’s statements imply that this shift is the result of negotiated concessions. The SDF, which boasts a regular army of tens of thousands of fighters, is unlikely to relinquish its arsenal without irrefutable assurances.
The stakes are staggering. Failure to reconcile these differences could lead to a conflict in Syria’s resource-rich eastern regions, dwarfing the violence in Suwayda. The SDF controls oil fields and strategic territories, making it pivotal to Syria’s future, but its ambitions clash with Damascus’s centralizing instincts and Turkey’s security imperatives. Israel’s shadow also looms large, with its strikes and alleged corridor project stoking fears of external meddling.
As Syria grapples with ongoing crises, the SDF’s integration remains a ticking time bomb. Absent transparent negotiations and mutual concessions, the potential for a new civil war to erupt once more is high, thereby engendering further chaos within the country.
* Ömer Murat is a political analyst and a former Turkish diplomat who currently lives in Germany.