*Adem Yavuz Arslan, Washington, D.C.
Once a trusted partner in NATO’s most ambitious defense initiative, Turkey today finds itself both diplomatically isolated and militarily weakened. Its expulsion from the US-led F-35 program, the controversial purchase of Russian-made S-400 air defense systems and the sweeping purges of military personnel following a controversial coup attempt on July 15, 2016, have left the Turkish Air Force debilitated, under-equipped and strategically adrift. Behind the nationalist rhetoric lies a sobering reality: strategic miscalculations, politically driven purges and a military institution grappling with one of the deepest capability crises in its modern history.
From trusted ally to isolated actor
In 2007 Turkey became part of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, not merely as a customer but as a full production and development partner. Turkish defense companies were contracted to manufacture over 900 components for the F-35, including parts critical to the aircraft’s stealth and combat capabilities. The deal was hailed as a milestone for Turkey’s defense industry and a major step toward integrating fifth-generation fighter technology into its arsenal.
This trajectory shifted dramatically in 2017, when Ankara opted to purchase the Russian-made S-400 air defense system. The rationale of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the deal remains ambiguous. Strategically, the two S-400 batteries and their 144 missiles are insufficient to defend Turkey’s expansive airspace. Politically, the purchase contradicted Turkey’s NATO commitments, given that Russia is officially designated as a “threat” by the alliance.
Despite repeated warnings from the United States and NATO, Turkey proceeded. In 2019 the first S-400 shipments arrived. The US promptly responded by removing Turkey from the F-35 program, citing concerns that the S-400 system could compromise NATO’s defense infrastructure and potentially expose sensitive F-35 technologies to Russia.
In 2020 the Trump administration imposed sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), further isolating Turkey from Western defense markets. As a result Turkey forfeited not only the 100 F-35s it had ordered, including four already paid for, but also billions of dollars in defense investment, technological transfer and domestic industry revenue.
Today, the Turkish Air Force relies heavily on aging F-16s, struggling to maintain or modernize them due to export restrictions. The economic toll is staggering: Turkey paid $2.5 billion for the S-400s, $1.25 billion for F-35s it never received and reportedly lost $700 million annually in defense industry contracts. Ankara also spent $750,000 per year on US lobbying efforts to remain in the F-35 program, ultimately to no avail. The result? No operational S-400 system, no F-35 jets and a weakened air force, widely seen as a textbook example of strategic failure.
After July 15: A decimated pilot corps
Turkey’s external defense setbacks were compounded by an internal collapse in military personnel. Following an attempted coup on July 15, 2016, an event the government of President Erdoğan blames on the faith-based Gülen movement, though the circumstances remain highly contested, mass purges reshaped the Turkish Armed Forces. Over 900 military pilots were dismissed, many arrested. Additionally, 900 cadets from the Air Force Academy and 800 students from military high schools, future pilots in training, were expelled.
In a single stroke Turkey lost nearly 70 percent of its pilot corps. With obsolete aircraft and too few qualified pilots, the Turkish Air Force found itself critically vulnerable amid growing regional instability.
The purges not only drained operational capacity but also eroded institutional expertise. NATO-standard training programs were disrupted, experienced personnel removed and morale severely damaged. Later efforts to train replacements or quietly reinstate dismissed officers proved insufficient. At times there were reports of foreign contractors or civilian pilots filling operational gaps, highlighting the magnitude of the crisis.
S-400: An expensive gamble with no payoff
Marketed by Ankara as a bold assertion of sovereign defense policy, the S-400 system ironically remains largely inactive. Despite deliveries, most components are stored in depots or used in limited tests, seemingly to avoid provoking harsher US or NATO retaliation.
Critics argue that the acquisition sacrificed real defense capabilities for a symbolic geopolitical message aimed at demonstrating Turkish autonomy. Even pro-government analysts have struggled to defend the purchase, as the consequences — Turkey’s expulsion from the F-35 program and deteriorating relations with key NATO allies — became increasingly apparent.
Meanwhile, regional rivals are modernizing their air forces. Israel operates a cutting-edge fleet of F-35s, some modified for extended-range operations that could target Iran without in-air refueling. Greece is acquiring both F-35s and advanced French Rafale jets. Even Egypt is enhancing its aerial capabilities. In stark contrast Turkey remains reliant on aging F-16s, facing growing isolation and a widening technological gap.
A future clouded by uncertainty
In response Turkey has pivoted to its indigenous fighter project, the TF-X (renamed KAAN), and has requested to purchase 40 F-16 Block 70 aircraft from the US. Both efforts face serious obstacles, including soaring costs, dependence on foreign technology and a persistent shortage of qualified military personnel. Years of brain drain, political appointments and widespread purges have severely undermined institutional capacity.
Negotiations with Washington over F-16 upgrades remain stalled, complicated by strained US-Turkey relations and congressional opposition. Even if approved, the upgrades may arrive too late to restore Turkey’s eroding air power. The KAAN project, heavily promoted by the Erdoğan government as a symbol of technological self-sufficiency, is still in its prototype phase. Experts estimate it will not be operational before 2030, assuming development stays on schedule.
Moreover, the US has repeatedly made clear: As long as Russian S-400 systems remain on Turkish soil, there is no pathway back into the F-35 program.
A cautionary tale of missed opportunities
Turkey’s expulsion from the F-35 program shows how ideological agendas and short-term political gains can derail long-term strategic interests. Once viewed as a rising power in defense modernization, Turkey now faces grounded jets, jailed pilots, idle factories and undelivered aircraft.
Without a fundamental reassessment of its defense policies, a halt to political interference in military affairs and efforts to mend ties with NATO allies, the Turkish Air Force risks becoming a cautionary tale in global military history, an example of how ambition, poorly managed, can lead to isolation and strategic decline.
*Adem Yavuz Arslan is a journalist with over two decades of experience in political reporting, investigative journalism and international conflict coverage. His work has focused on Turkey’s political landscape, including detailed reporting on the 2016 coup attempt and its aftermath, as well as broader issues related to media freedom and human rights. He has reported from conflict zones such as Bosnia, Kosovo and Iraq, and has conducted in-depth research on high-profile cases, including the assassination of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink. Arslan is the author of four books and has received journalism awards for his investigative work. Currently living in exile in Washington, D.C., he continues his journalism through digital media platforms, including his YouTube channel, Turkish Minute, TR724 and X.