An estimated 700,000 Syrians are expected to return to Syria from Turkey by the end of 2025, according to the United Nations refugee agency’s annual Global Trends report published on Thursday.
The report, published by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), attributes this expected mass return to the political shift in Syria after opposition forces ousted Bashar al-Assad. The fall of the government on December 8, 2024, created renewed hope among displaced Syrians, with many seeing an opportunity to return despite fragile security conditions.
According to UNHCR, more than 500,000 Syrians had already returned by mid-May, with the total number expected to reach 1.5 million by year’s end. Of those, 700,000 are projected to return from Turkey alone. Other major countries of return include Lebanon (400,000), Jordan (200,000) and Egypt (25,000), with smaller numbers returning from other countries.
While the pace of returns has accelerated, UNHCR emphasizes that many returnees face significant obstacles. Housing, essential services and livelihoods remain limited in parts of Syria. The agency notes that 88 percent of those who plan to return within the next year intend to go back to their place of origin, underscoring the emotional and cultural ties driving the returns.
Turkey has long been the epicenter of the Syrian refugee crisis. At the end of 2024, Turkey hosted nearly 2.9 million registered Syrian refugees and asylum-seekers. Although returns had remained low for years, 2025 has brought a sharp reversal.
The Turkish government, which has promoted voluntary repatriation policies and declared its aim to reduce the refugee population, is likely to frame the return wave as a vindication of its approach. However, human rights groups have repeatedly expressed concern over the conditions under which Syrians are encouraged — or pressured — to return, citing reports of coerced returns, lack of informed consent and unsafe reintegration environments.
UNHCR does not indicate that returns from Turkey in 2025 are forced, but it emphasizes the need for protection safeguards and international support.
A growing desire to return among refugees
The rising number of returns is consistent with UNHCR’s findings on refugee intentions. In January 2025 the agency conducted its tenth “Regional Survey on Syrian Refugees’ Perceptions and Intentions on Return,” covering 3,368 Syrian refugees in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon.
The survey found that 80 percent of respondents hoped to return to Syria one day, a significant increase from 57 percent in the April 2024 edition. More strikingly, 27 percent said they intended to return within the next 12 months — up from just 2 percent in the previous survey.
The main reasons cited by those planning to return included improvements in the security situation, a desire to reunite with family and a longing to participate in rebuilding their country. Some also pointed to deteriorating conditions in host countries such as economic hardship, lack of legal status and fear of arrest.
Most of those intending to return (88 percent) said they planned to go back to their original homes or towns. However, many expressed concern about whether their property still existed or was inhabitable. The lack of access to housing, basic services and jobs remains a key obstacle for sustainable reintegration.
Challenges to rebuilding and reintegration
UNHCR points out that sustainable return requires more than the cessation of conflict. Restoring infrastructure, legal documentation systems, public services and property rights are essential for enabling returnees to rebuild their lives.
“There is also a pressing need for increased investment inside Syria to support recovery, reconstruction of vital infrastructures and scaling up of public services such as schools and hospitals to create more favourable conditions for those refugees and IDPs who choose to return,” the report notes.
At the Ninth Brussels Conference on Syria, held in March 2025, donors pledged €5.8 billion to support Syria’s recovery and regional refugee response plans. UNHCR welcomes this commitment but warns that much more funding is required to meet the needs of both returnees and those who remain displaced.
Additionally, the report states that both the European Union and the United States have made recent announcements about easing sanctions on Syria — a move likely aimed at facilitating reconstruction and humanitarian access.
Not all refugees are ready to return
Despite the upsurge in returns, a large proportion of Syrian refugees remain unconvinced that the time is right. According to the January 2025 survey, 55 percent of respondents said they did not intend to return in the near future.
Their concerns include ongoing insecurity, economic instability, lack of housing and the unknown nature of the new authorities in post-Assad Syria. The report warns that returns under such uncertainty risk being premature and unsustainable.
UNHCR also observes that refugees residing in countries further from Syria — such as in Europe — tend to express lower intentions to return. Concerns about legal status, safety and integration in Syria remain significant barriers.
Displacement in the world at record levels
The Syrian return trend is unfolding amid record global displacement. The UNHCR report states that by the end of 2024, 123.2 million people were forcibly displaced worldwide, including 31 million refugees under UNHCR’s mandate and 73.5 million internally displaced due to conflict and violence.
The overall number rose by 7 million compared to 2023, though preliminary data suggest a slight decline in displacement by early 2025 — down 1 percent to 122.1 million. This modest reversal is largely driven by the return of Syrians, Afghans and South Sudanese as well as relative slowdowns in displacement from other regions.
Still, the global refugee system remains under immense strain. Only 188,800 refugees were resettled in 2024, and resettlement quotas are projected to fall dramatically in 2025. UNHCR estimates that 2.9 million refugees will need resettlement this year — ten times more than the available spots.
Humanitarian system under pressure
The report concludes with a warning that the humanitarian system is approaching a breaking point. Funding shortfalls, especially from traditional donor countries, are affecting UNHCR’s ability to maintain essential services, including food, shelter and protection.
“Without sufficient funding, there will not be enough food assistance and basic shelter support for displaced people, leaving them with little option than to resort to dangerous
onward movements,” the report cautions.
UNHCR calls for sustained and coordinated support from international partners to ensure that the momentum for returns to Syria becomes a foundation for long-term recovery rather than another chapter of displacement.