[ANALYSIS] Erdoğan’s paradox: the mediator abroad, the strongman at home

Fatih Yurtsever*

In the spring of 2025 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reasserted his role on the global stage as a mediator in international conflicts, in particular in the Russia-Ukraine war. He hosted a high-level summit in İstanbul on the war — an event that European diplomats described as highlighting Turkey’s strategic position.

The summit brought together delegations from Ukraine and Russia, though Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not attend.

European officials and international observers praised Turkey’s diplomatic initiative, underscoring Ankara’s unique position as a bridge between East and West.

As Erdoğan works for recognition in diplomacy, opposition parties and rights groups in Turkey criticize what they describe as democratic backsliding under his leadership.

Opposition protests increased after authorities arrested İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a Republican People’s Party (CHP) official who announced plans to run for president.

Police detained İmamoğlu on March 19, along with more than 100 others, including CHP officials, journalists and business leaders.

The detentions led to protests in İstanbul, Ankara and four other major cities. Opposition leaders claim prosecutors filed charges without sufficient evidence and allege that the judiciary targets government critics.

Rights organizations like Freedom House have expressed serious concern about the state of democratic institutions and the rule of law in Turkey. In its 2025 report, Freedom House rated Turkey as “Not Free,” citing a sharp decline in political rights and civil liberties due to increasing authoritarianism and systematic suppression of dissent under President Erdoğan’s leadership

Political analysts note the contrast between Erdoğan’s international diplomacy and his approach to domestic governance. Many describe it as a calculated political strategy

Two faces of Erdoğan

In the wake of İmamoğlu’s arrest, Turkey witnessed what was described by observers as the country’s largest student protest in the past decade. Detained on March 19, İmamoğlu was formally arrested on March 23 on corruption charges. University students gathered in İstanbul and across multiple cities to protest what they characterized as politically motivated legal actions against İmamoğlu

While the protests erupted following high-profile detention, demonstrators maintained they were acting independently of political parties, stressing their desire for a nonpartisan demonstration. Many participants concealed their faces with masks or bandanas, expressing fear of detention or being blacklisted. Police use force to break up protests at a university in Turkey’s capital.

In contrast to domestic controversies, Erdoğan operates internationally as a negotiator in regional conflicts. His mediation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict — including the 2022 Black Sea grain deal — received positive statements from both Moscow and Kyiv. This situation demonstrates the contrast between Erdoğan’s domestic policies and his diplomatic approach internationally.

Erdoğan has once again put himself at the center of efforts to broker peace, as Zelensky traveled to Ankara amid new rounds of shuttle diplomacy. That Zelensky’s Ukraine delegation reportedly left the summit with few tangible results is less important than the optics: Erdoğan was the one hosting, and the world was watching.

Erdoğan has strategically maintained open channels with all sides — including the Kremlin, Kyiv and Washington.

His consistent engagement has positioned İstanbul as a symbolic hub for potential peace, with even Russia proposing it as a site for direct negotiations. Though neither Putin nor Donald Trump ultimately attended the summit, Erdoğan’s centrality in the diplomatic theater was unmistakable.

A manufactured narrative of greatness

This contradiction is not accidental; it is domestically cultivated and strategically amplified. Erdoğan and his allies in the pro-government media frame every international summit, handshake and negotiation as proof that Turkey is a “great power” under his leadership. Public broadcasters paint a picture of a president whom world leaders must consult — “Everyone comes to us” is the refrain frequently echoed across headlines and prime-time news.

This narrative has a dual purpose. First, it appeals to national pride, particularly among Erdoğan’s base, who may be disillusioned by inflation, stagnant wages and unemployment. Second, it serves as a distraction from the very real democratic decline and economic hardship in the country.

According to recent analyses and public opinion trends, a substantial portion of the Turkish population — especially Erdoğan’s supporters — embraces the belief that Turkey plays a unique and strategic role in global affairs, a narrative consistently reinforced by the pro-government media.

The sense of grandeur is reinforced by Erdoğan’s rhetoric. He frequently warns of “foreign powers” seeking to destabilize Turkey while presenting himself as the only leader capable of protecting national sovereignty and global dignity. It is a potent mix of nationalism and projection.

Why Turkey’s geopolitical relevance is growing — with or without Erdoğan

It would be overly simplistic to attribute Turkey’s diplomatic importance solely to Erdoğan’s leadership. Two broader structural forces have also elevated Turkey’s role.

As US dominance declines and power becomes more distributed among regional actors, middle powers like Turkey gain space to assert themselves.

Situated in the middle of Europe, the Middle East and Eurasia, Turkey is uniquely positioned to mediate conflicts and broker deals. Erdoğan has skillfully inserted himself into this vacuum, but the structural opportunity would exist regardless of who leads the country.

Under President Trump, traditional US diplomacy has been replaced by transactional, leader-to-leader relationships with figures like Erdoğan. This approach has set a new norm in global politics, where realpolitik and direct negotiations now shape much of international affairs.

Turkey’s role in Europe’s emerging security architecture

Another key factor contributing to Erdoğan’s international leverage is Europe’s shifting defense strategy. As the European Union seeks to build a security architecture less reliant on NATO, Turkey’s burgeoning defense industry — marked by homegrown drone technology and expanding military exports — positions it as a valuable player in this evolving system.

European capitals, such as Italy, once skeptical of military cooperation with Ankara, are now quietly exploring ways to include Turkey in regional security dialogues and defense collaborations.

Erdoğan has seized on this opening. By presenting Turkey as a bridge between NATO and a post-NATO European defense future, he reinforces his narrative of indispensability.

Domestically, this alignment is packaged as further proof of Turkey’s global leadership, feeding into nationalist pride and offsetting criticism over domestic repression.

From global stage to ballot box

Erdoğan’s foreign policy achievements are not only aimed at the international community but are also carefully repackaged for domestic political gain. Every diplomatic breakthrough, regardless of its scale or symbolism, is framed as evidence that Turkey has “regained its honor” and that Erdoğan is the leader who made it possible.

This approach has proven particularly effective in the run-up to elections, such as the 2023 presidential and parliamentary contests and the 2024 local elections, where Erdoğan’s campaign heavily stressed themes of national sovereignty, Turkey’s rising global prestige and criticism of perceived Western hypocrisy.

His meetings with foreign leaders were frequently showcased in televised campaign advertisements and state media, reinforcing the image of Erdoğan as an indispensable figure on the world stage.

Meanwhile, pressing domestic issues, such as soaring inflation and growing concerns over the erosion of judicial independence, have often been downplayed or overshadowed by the narrative of strategic foreign policy victories.

Turkey has experienced double digit inflation since 2019, with the annual rate peaking at 85.5 percent in October 2022. It has declined over the years and currently stands at around 38 percent

The European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights’ 2024 Fundamental Rights Report stresses ongoing challenges in Turkey related to judicial independence and freedom of expression, noting increasing restrictions on civil society and the shrinking space for dissent under President Erdoğan’s government.

The risks of overplaying the diplomatic card

There are signs, however, that this balancing act is becoming more difficult to maintain.

First, international audiences are growing more critical. The European Parliament, Freedom House and multiple human rights organizations have sounded alarms about Turkey’s erosion of civil liberties.

While realpolitik ensures Erdoğan still has a seat at many global tables, the reputational cost of his domestic policies is rising.

Second, the crises in which Erdoğan is intervening — Ukraine, Syria, Gaza — are not easily solvable.

Today’s diplomatic win can quickly become tomorrow’s liability if Turkey becomes entangled in a broader regional conflict or if talks collapse.

Third, domestic fatigue is growing. Many Turkish citizens express frustration over the government’s focus on international diplomacy, feeling disconnected from daily economic hardships such as rising food prices.

Conclusion: Will the paradox hold?

Erdoğan’s dual identity — as a trusted international mediator and a domestic autocrat — has allowed him to weather multiple storms. It has earned him legitimacy abroad and shored up his power at home. But the paradox is wearing thin.

Turkey’s growing importance in the international system is real, rooted in geography and global change. But Erdoğan’s ability to translate that relevance into lasting domestic legitimacy depends on his ability to suppress opposition, control narratives and deliver just enough hope.

Should any of these pillars falter — through economic collapse, international isolation or a revitalized domestic opposition — the contradictions may unravel.

For now, the world still calls Erdoğan to the table. Whether Erdoğan’s growing international stature can be reconciled with Turkey’s democratic decline — or whether it simply fortifies his grip on power — remains the defining paradox of his leadership.